### Nerdy scientist Caliph's Tomb post :-)

Posted:

**25 Sep 2013 01:13 am**So during EpiCon, Caliph's Tomb came to my attention. I like Pyramid, but hate how hard it is to win, and was pleased to discover that the two rightmost Caliph's Tomb layouts were pretty easy to win and pay 10k sP per win for up to 10 wins a day (provided you only send wins).

I started wondering which of the two right-hand layouts was easier to win. Wondering this sort of thing is always dangerous.

About a month and 300 games of Caliph's Tomb later (150 on each of the two right-hand layouts) I've reached the conclusion that I cannot reject the null hypothesis that the probability of winning the two layouts is the same.

The top right layout had a 70% win rate, the bottom right had a 75.33% win rate. The chi-squared test I ran produced a

I'm torn between thinking, "Yay, no more recording wins and losses" and thinking, "Hmm, I wonder if they would still fall short of significance if I took it up to 500 games?"

Yes, I am a nerd (and a scientist) -- why do you ask?

Incidentally, if you like this style of solitaire -- which I obviously do! -- it's not the worst way to make sP in the world (provided you use one of the two easy right-hand layouts). I made 2,180,000 sP over the course of this experiment. Not staggering, but not bad given that I also had fun playing.

I started wondering which of the two right-hand layouts was easier to win. Wondering this sort of thing is always dangerous.

About a month and 300 games of Caliph's Tomb later (150 on each of the two right-hand layouts) I've reached the conclusion that I cannot reject the null hypothesis that the probability of winning the two layouts is the same.

The top right layout had a 70% win rate, the bottom right had a 75.33% win rate. The chi-squared test I ran produced a

*p*of .13, meaning that if the two layouts had the same chances to win, there's a 13% chance I'd get a difference as big as the 5% difference I found. (That may sound like a low probability, but the usual criteria for concluding that the two things are actually different is*p*=.05.)I'm torn between thinking, "Yay, no more recording wins and losses" and thinking, "Hmm, I wonder if they would still fall short of significance if I took it up to 500 games?"

Yes, I am a nerd (and a scientist) -- why do you ask?

Incidentally, if you like this style of solitaire -- which I obviously do! -- it's not the worst way to make sP in the world (provided you use one of the two easy right-hand layouts). I made 2,180,000 sP over the course of this experiment. Not staggering, but not bad given that I also had fun playing.